The following key trends were observed in generation and demand in the NEM over the month of October.

Demand:

Total demand in the NEM has recovered from its lows early in 2015, but the rate of its recovery appears to have slowed recently. The headline result masks a continuing increase demand in Queensland counteracted by a flattening of demand in New South Wales and Victoria (Figures 1 and 2).

Emissions:

Emissions from the NEM continue to rise, with an increase in the share of coal (black and brown) in the total generation portfolio and a corresponding drop in the share of both gas and renewables (Figures 3 ‐ 5).

Total share of coal in the overall generation mix has reached 75.6% as a result of a continuous rise since July 2014 when it reached a low of 72.4% (Figure 5). Generation: • Black coal output is at its highest for two years (Figure 3).

At the same time brown coal generation has decreased slightly over the last four months, following its post‐ carbon‐pricing rally (Figure 3).

Rooftop solar output continues to grow, whilst wind output remained virtually unchanged recently, but is still on a longer term growth trend (Figure 3).

Total generation from hydro plants continues at well below the level of the last few years.

All emissions data are reported as annual moving averages. This approach removes the impact on the reported data of seasonal changes, which particularly influence electricity and gas. Annualised data reported in CEDEX will show a month on month increase if the most recent monthly quantity is greater than the quantity in the corresponding month one year previously. Solar data is provided by the Australian Photovoltaic Institute (APVI).

This is an extract of the CEDEX Carbon Emissions Index produced by engineering consultancy Pitt & Sherry with the support of The Australia Institute.

Source: http://www.businessspectator.com.au/article/2015/11/13/energy-markets/coal-and-power-demand-recovery-continues

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